Xi Jinping’s military gambit, by Dr. J. Del Pozo

Deng Xiaoping played a pivotal role in driving China’s sustained growth in the decades following his rise to power. For years, major world powers remained passive as China gradually awakened, recovering from the disasters of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution—two initiatives that aimed to accelerate national development, the former economically and the …

Theory of Victory: reassessing the outcome of conflict, by Dr J. Del Pozo

In September 1978, U.S. President Jimmy Carter convened Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin at Camp David for several high-stakes peace negotiations. Central to these talks was the fate of the Sinai Peninsula, a territory of paramount importance to both States, occupied by Israel since 1967 during the Six Day War, …

Democracy, autocracy and the problems of peace, by Dr. J. Del Pozo

Democracy, autocracy and the problems of leadership and peace. Since Emmanuel Kant proposed his “Perpetual peace” theory, the axiom that democracies rarely fight one another has dominated liberal thought. Yet history reveals a more nuanced relationship between regime type and peace. Whereas liberal democracies have shown little appetite for conflict among equals, some autocracies have …

Trump, Putin and the Compiègne Wagon, by Dr. Juan Del Pozo

Back to where it all began The Great War ended with the armistice of November 11th, 1918, but it would still take a few months before the Treaty of Versailles was signed, on June 28th 1919. Amongst the three leading powers that made it their goal to wield a long-lasting peace agreement, Woodrow Wilson was, perhaps, the …

Japan´s awakening: navigating shifts in Asia´s regional balance, by Dr. J. Del Pozo

Since World War II, Japan has been adopting an isolationist strategy amidst a developing economy that has been challenging the supremacy of some Western companies, particularly in the field of technology. Despite US-Japanese partnership, the 1990´s experienced a period of unrest between both actors, as Japanese trade policies were considered unfair by Western counterparts, enforcing …

China: friend or foe?, by Dr. Juan Del Pozo

Asia is consolidating a new resurgence, with China and India paving the way towards a new world order we continue to struggle in deciphering. These two powers, in much the same way as Japan during the Meiji Restoration, have embraced Western principles for the benefit of their economic development, but are beginning to re-engage with …

China´s alliance dilemma, by J. Del Pozo

One of the arguably most successful moves by China since 1949 was the Strait of Taiwan Crises of 1954 and 1958. These events were successful for two fundamental reasons. First and foremost, it was the first time since the founding of the People´s Republic of China, that the emerging power initiated and sustained a crisis …

What is China for the world?, by J. Del Pozo

“Strategic competitor”, “systemic challenge” or even “pacing challenge” have been some of the terms used when referring to China. The colorful semantics involved only suggests that there is considerable doubt over what China really is. During the Cold War, and to George Kennan´s satisfaction, there was wide consensus to label the Soviet Union as a …

The Melian Dialogue and the struggle for power, by J. Del Pozo Berenguer

“If men could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us! But party and passion blind our eyes, and the light which experience gives us is just a lantern, shining the waves behind us” Samuel Coleridge. In fashionable sailor-like style, the good Poet was not only suggesting history as a must, but was also …

About democracy and conflict, by J. Del Pozo Berenguer

Until the Peace of Westphalia, conflict was a standard tool in pursuing foreign policy. More interestingly, the decision to engage in war was within the prerogatives of the monarch. Paradoxically, whereas monarchies didn´t carry the sole burden of conflict catalysts, they managed to show considerable restraint on a number of occasions in preventing them. In …

The socio-economic dilemma in China, by J. Del Pozo

China has been experiencing economic difficulties in the last few months. Real estate behemoth EVERGRANDE filed for bankruptcy in the United States in early 2023, local governments have been assuming enormous debt, and foreign investment is slowly experiencing some shortfalls on account of China’s inability to reciprocate western benefits to Chinese companies established overseas. On …

The return of nationalism, by J. Del Pozo

Society has frequently supported its leaders in their decision to go to war. But rarely has conflict been the product of social initiative. Rather, it has been each leaders’ will and the fulfillment of his dreams that has condemned his society to conflict. Moreover, in too many cases, a deep nationalistic sentiment imbedded in this …

Does China have the leverage to mediate in the Red Sea crisis?, by J. Del Pozo

In a recent speech, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said that “the Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East”. This may explain why China remains incapable or unwilling to play a super power role in the Red Sea crisis, but hardly explains why Iran seems to be playing a bandwagoning card with …

North Korea´s (new?) policy towards South Korea, by J. Del Pozo

Something appears to have changed after the 2018 Hanoi Summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and former president Donald Trump. The number of missile launches has increased slightly, but the real game changer has been Kim´s January 2024 address to the 10th Session of the 14th Supreme People´s Assembly. In his speech he ruled …

Presidential elections in 2024: US and Taiwan in the spotlight, by J. Del Pozo

2024 will be a decisive year that could potentially have considerable impact in world affairs. Over forty countries are expected to have general elections, but two are of particular significance: Taiwan and the United States of America.   Since 1949, following the foundation of the People´s Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan has been undergoing its …

In pursuit of deterrence, by J. Del Pozo

In the years that preceded the Peloponnesian War, Sparta had been an uncontested regional hegemon. A land and dictatorial power, it dominated the region that surrounded the Aegean Sea, and the city states distributed across the area evolved with a watchful eye on the dominating actor. Sparta succeeded in deterring for years, that is, preventing …

China´s approach towards Africa: threat or lessons for the West?, by J. Del Pozo

Recent months have revealed the cruel reality of Western engagement in Africa. The situation in Mali continues to advance on a downward slope, aggravated by the withdrawal of European forces in the region, and in Somalia there is no longer a “legal finish” agreement with the EU, effectively hampering an adequate framework for the fight …

The Nuclear dilemma, by J. Del Pozo

The function war plays in the world order remains unchanged, for it serves the purpose of seeking a new form of peace that satisfies that State that enforces it. The means used to conduct it, however, continues to evolve, as do the spectrum of actors that can wage war, no longer limited to states, but …

Return to the Westphalian model, by J. Del Pozo

The history of international relations is the history of social evolution. Aristotle put forward the revolutionary idea that the main feature which differentiated man from the rest of living creatures is his ability to reason. In a Hobbesian world, in which man is an evil creature in its state of nature, in search of his …

China, United States of America and the moral dimension, by J. Del Pozo Berenguer

During the Strait of Taiwan crisis in 1954 and again in 1958, Mao ordered the shelling of the islands in a fashionably synchronized manner. At the time, the world stood by in bewilderment under the troubling prospect of another conflict in the far East. Years later, both Zhou Enlai and Mao himself revealed the true …